CLE @ TB
Sun 1:00 PM · CBS
The Bros' Picks
CLE +8.5
win
The Guru's Top Shelf
TB -8.5
loss
Week 2
Two desks.
The group chat and The Guru, posted before kickoff, graded in public.
The split · 7
NO @ BAL
Sun 1:00 PM · CBS
The Bros' Picks
NO +8.5
win
The Guru's Top Shelf
BAL -7.5
loss
JAX @ DEN
Sun 4:05 PM · CBS
The Bros' Picks
JAX +2.5
loss
The Guru's Top Shelf
DEN -2.5
win
WAS @ DAL
Sun 4:25 PM · FOX
The Bros' Picks
WAS +4.5
loss
The Guru's Top Shelf
DAL -3.5
win
MIA @ SF
Sun 4:25 PM · FOX
The Bros' Picks
MIA +13.5
loss
The Guru's Top Shelf
SF -13.5
win
IND @ KC
Sun 8:20 PM · NBC
The Bros' Picks
IND +6.5
win
The Guru's Top Shelf
KC -6.5
loss
NYG @ LAR
Mon 8:15 PM · ABC
The Bros' Picks
NYG +7
loss
The Guru's Top Shelf
LAR -7
win
The Bros' Picks
Plus-fives in Orchard Park
8–8-2u
Thursday night in Orchard Park is the whole conversation until it isn't. Buffalo is laying five and a half in a new Highmark, Detroit just survived a collapse in overtime, and the rest of the board is a row of home chalk. I faded the fattest number I could find on a short week and took the Lions plus the points.
Thu 8:15 PM · Prime
The Bros' PicksWin
DET
ATDetroit
Lions
BUF
Buffalo
Bills
The pick
BUF -4.5
Bills to win. Liked −4.5. At −5.5 mostly out. Moneyline is the cleanest ticket. Not a hammer.
Sun 1:00 PM · FOX
The Bros' PicksLoss
CAR
ATCarolina
Panthers
ATL
Atlanta
Falcons
The pick
ATL +2.5
Carolina just got lit up for 59. Home dog after that mess. Not fancy.
Sun 1:00 PM · FOX
The Bros' PicksLoss
MIN
ATMinnesota
Vikings
CHI
Chicago
Bears
The pick
CHI -4.5
Holdout. Soldier Field after 59. Night-one-at-the-shed. Not fading Chicago at home.
Sun 1:00 PM · FOX
The Bros' PicksLoss
PHI
ATPhiladelphia
Eagles
TEN
Tennessee
Titans
The pick
PHI -7
Tennessee forgot the words. Just take the good team. Under is the totals vibe.
Sun 1:00 PM · CBS
The Bros' PicksWin
PIT
ATPittsburgh
Steelers
NE
New England
Patriots
The pick
NE -5.5
Buying the Pats bounce more than Steelers road aura. Lean chalk we do not hate.
Sun 1:00 PM · FOX
The Bros' PicksWin
GB
ATGreen Bay
Packers
NYJ
New York
Jets
The pick
NYJ +3.5
Green Bay melted down late. Jets punched first in Tennessee. Home dog.
Sun 1:00 PM · CBS
The Bros' PicksWin
CLE
ATCleveland
Browns
TB
Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
The pick
CLE +8.5
Tampa should win. Laying 8.5 in week 2 is how a win becomes a loss on the ticket.
Sun 1:00 PM · CBS
The Bros' PicksWin
NO
ATNew Orleans
Saints
BAL
Baltimore
Ravens
The pick
NO +8.5
Eight-and-a-half after a big Ravens win is where the public piles on. Saints just took Detroit to OT. Take the points.
Sun 1:00 PM · CBS
The Bros' PicksWin
CIN
ATCincinnati
Bengals
HOU
Houston
Texans
The pick
CIN +2.5
Best bet. Small road dog. Cincy's offense is still Cincy's offense. Yes please.
Sun 4:05 PM · CBS
The Bros' PicksLoss
JAX
ATJacksonville
Jaguars
DEN
Denver
Broncos
The pick
JAX +2.5
Best bet. Mile High is loud. It is not automatic. Jacksonville looked real.
Sun 4:05 PM · CBS
The Bros' PicksWin
LV
ATLas Vegas
Raiders
LAC
Los Angeles
Chargers
The pick
LV +6.5
Hangover game. Chargers probably win. We are not laying 6.5 to find out.
Sun 4:25 PM · FOX
The Bros' PicksLoss
WAS
ATWashington
Commanders
DAL
Dallas
Cowboys
The pick
WAS +4.5
Both 0–1. Take the points in the circus. Washington just hung with Philly.
Sun 4:25 PM · FOX
The Bros' PicksLoss
SEA
ATSeattle
Seahawks
ARI
Arizona
Cardinals
The pick
ARI +3.5
Best bet. Darnold out, Lock starting. Home points with the backup under center.
Sun 4:25 PM · FOX
The Bros' PicksLoss
MIA
ATMiami
Dolphins
SF
San Francisco
49ers
The pick
MIA +13.5
Best bet. Points only — not a Miami fan club. Two scores in September is a no.
Sun 8:20 PM · NBC
The Bros' PicksWin
IND
ATIndianapolis
Colts
KC
Kansas City
Chiefs
The pick
IND +6.5
Holdout. Six-and-a-half on SNF is where the public gets cute. Indy plus the number.
Mon 8:15 PM · ABC
The Bros' PicksLoss
NYG
ATNew York
Giants
LAR
Los Angeles
Rams
The pick
NYG +7
Holdout. Australia hangover. Giants just beat Dallas. Take the points on MNF.
The lock is Kansas City at home against an Indianapolis team that just got trucked by Derrick Henry. Everything else is a negotiation with September samples.
I am not laying 13 and a half in Santa Clara. I am not laying 8 and a half in Tampa. I am laying a touchdown on Philadelphia in Nashville, and I am laying a field goal on Seattle in the desert. That is the personality of this card: fade the gaudy home numbers, trust the roster gaps that week 1 actually confirmed.
Grade it Sunday night. The Thursday play posts first.
The Guru's Top Shelf
The number is the number
6–6-3u
Twelve plays over 3.0pp. Six of them fade the bros. The model does not care who you like, and it does not care about a new stadium in Orchard Park except as rest and a home number that still clears.
Thu 8:15 PM · Prime
The Guru's Top ShelfWin
DET
ATDetroit
Lions
BUF
Buffalo
Bills
The pick
BUF -5.5
+4.2pp · rest
Edge +4.2pp. Rest and a new building. Card is on Buffalo; tape does not hate Detroit, it just does not clear the number. Play the home side.
Sun 1:00 PM · FOX
The Guru's Top ShelfLoss
CAR
ATCarolina
Panthers
ATL
Atlanta
Falcons
The pick
ATL +2.5
+3.1pp · pace
Edge +3.1pp, just over the floor. Two dumps in week one, Atlanta at home in a slow script. Lean, not a flag.
Sun 1:00 PM · FOX
The Guru's Top ShelfLoss
MIN
ATMinnesota
Vikings
CHI
Chicago
Bears
The pick
CHI -4.5
+3.6pp · usage
Edge +3.6pp. Usage says Chicago's week-one explosion was real volume, not noise. Minnesota's 39 is a one-game sample. Home, lay it.
Sun 1:00 PM · FOX
The Guru's Top ShelfLoss
PHI
ATPhiladelphia
Eagles
TEN
Tennessee
Titans
The pick
PHI -7
+4.4pp · tape
Edge +4.4pp. Tape gap is a roster gap. Tennessee is a touchdown dog because they are a touchdown worse. Lay it.
Sun 1:00 PM · CBS
The Guru's Top ShelfWin
PIT
ATPittsburgh
Steelers
NE
New England
Patriots
The pick
NE -5.5
+3.3pp · card
Edge +3.3pp. Card has not moved off New England at home. Pittsburgh's week-one slog does not travel into this number.
Sun 1:00 PM · CBS
The Guru's Top ShelfLoss
CLE
ATCleveland
Browns
TB
Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
The pick
TB -8.5
+3.4pp · tape
Edge +3.4pp. Cleveland got run out of Jacksonville. Tampa's number is fat because the tape is fat. Lay the chalk.
Sun 1:00 PM · CBS
The Guru's Top ShelfLoss
NO
ATNew Orleans
Saints
BAL
Baltimore
Ravens
The pick
BAL -7.5
+4.1pp · usage
Edge +4.1pp. Baltimore's week-one usage was a truck. Saints spent their season in overtime already. Model is not interested in the points.
Sun 4:05 PM · CBS
The Guru's Top ShelfWin
JAX
ATJacksonville
Jaguars
DEN
Denver
Broncos
The pick
DEN -2.5
+3.2pp · rest
Edge +3.2pp. Altitude, rest, tiny number. Denver's 31-10 is in the prior; the market still faded them. That's the play.
Sun 4:25 PM · FOX
The Guru's Top ShelfWin
WAS
ATWashington
Commanders
DAL
Dallas
Cowboys
The pick
DAL -3.5
+3.5pp · card
Edge +3.5pp. Card settled on Dallas at home and stopped. Commanders keep games close. The number already knows that.
Sun 4:25 PM · FOX
The Guru's Top ShelfWin
MIA
ATMiami
Dolphins
SF
San Francisco
49ers
The pick
SF -13.5
+3.8pp · tape
Edge +3.8pp. Model is at 16. Miami plus a lot of points is a public buy. Tape does not make 13.5 a hold. Lay it.
Sun 8:20 PM · NBC
The Guru's Top ShelfLoss
IND
ATIndianapolis
Colts
KC
Kansas City
Chiefs
The pick
KC -6.5
+5.1pp · usage
Edge +5.1pp. Lock. Kansas City's new back and Indianapolis getting trucked by Henry is the same sentence. Threshold is not close.
Mon 8:15 PM · ABC
The Guru's Top ShelfWin
NYG
ATNew York
Giants
LAR
Los Angeles
Rams
The pick
LAR -7
+3.3pp · card
Edge +3.3pp. Giants beat Dallas. That does not move a home touchdown against this Rams roster. Card agrees. Play.
Biggest edge on the board is Kansas City at home, +5.1pp on usage. The splits vs the group chat: Buffalo, Chicago, New England, Tampa, Denver, San Francisco. Grade both desks Sunday.