Week 4
Each game closes for picks at its own kickoff (ET).
Week 4. London at breakfast, an undrafted rookie starting in Tampa, and Chicago treating its quarterback like he's in witness protection. How big are you going?
Final: Browns 27, Steelers 24
BROS: Browns +3 · WIN
GURU: Steelers -2.5 · LOSS / Under 38.5 · LOSS
Guru's guess: Steelers 19, Browns 16
They split. Cleveland is missing both Jenkinses on the line, so a backup center has a long night ahead. Pittsburgh is thin at corner and down Rico Dowdle. We bought the half point from 2.5 to 3. Worse payout, but nothing is worse than losing by half a point.
BROS: Commanders +3.5
GURU: Commanders +3.5 · Under 47.5
Guru's guess: Colts 23, Commanders 21
Breakfast football. Eggs, coffee, and a beer you're calling a mimosa because there's orange juice somewhere in the house. Jayden's elbow got him ruled out, so it's Mariota again. Mariota just beat Seattle, so honestly, whatever. The line flipped from Washington favored to Indy laying three and a half. On a neutral field. In another country. Nobody's even home for this one and the line moved like somebody pulled the fire alarm. Jonathan Taylor runs it until the British people start booing the clock, so it's the Under. And I'm taking the hook, because losing by exactly three when you had three and a half is how you end up on the schneid. Bra, I've been on the schneid. It's not a nice place.
Player picks coming Sunday morning.
BROS: Bills -6.5
GURU: Bills -7 · Under 48.5
Guru's guess: Bills 27, Patriots 17
James Cook ran for 154 and the Bills just kept handing it to him like a bartender who quit checking IDs around eleven. Buffalo's 3-0. New England went to Jacksonville and got boxed up 35-6. Drake Maye threw two picks and looked like a guy who walked into the wrong wedding and stayed for the cake. This line went from three to seven, and normally I run from that. Not this time. Keep it small, because seven is seven, but I'm laying it. Under, because when you run it that much the clock moves faster than the Ticketmaster queue moves slow. Patriots fans, I would like to thank you for this one in advance.
Player picks coming Sunday morning.
BROS: Jets +3.5
GURU: Jets +3.5 · Under 43.5
Guru's guess: Bears 20, Jets 19
Nobody in Chicago knows who the quarterback is. Caleb's hamstring is doubtful, and Ben Johnson won't say if it's Keenum or Bagent. Keenum is 38 and just beat Philly 27-7, so maybe the answer is "the old guy" and we all learn something. The Jets have problems too, Breece Hall is out. But this line fell from eight and a half to three and a half, and Geno's coming off 31 for 37. That's a guy who's been around. He's the Mr. Pitt of quarterbacks, eats his Snickers with a knife and fork and gets the job done. Jets with the points. Under, because both teams are playing guys they didn't plan on playing. Mad small game. Fine by me.
Player picks coming Sunday morning.
BROS: Jaguars +2.5
GURU: Jaguars +2.5 · Over 51.5
Guru's guess: Bengals 27, Jaguars 26
Burrow threw for 282 and three scores in Pittsburgh, and Ja'Marr and Tee both went over 90. Cincy's offense is fine. Cincy's secondary is a different conversation, because three safeties are on the injury report. That's not a defense, that's a waiting room. Jacksonville just put 35 on New England and looked like they enjoyed it. When both teams can score and one of them can't cover anybody, you take the Over and you don't overthink it. Points go up like Chalk Dust Torture at a Saturday show. Jags plus two and a half, and if it comes down to a field goal at the end, I'm good with that too. Shootout. Large.
Player picks coming Sunday morning.
BROS: Giants +2.5
GURU: Cardinals -2.5 · Under 44.5
Guru's guess: Cardinals 23, Giants 17
The Giants opened as favorites and now they're getting points at home. That's what happens when Jameis throws for 118 yards and the front office trades for J.J. McCarthy the next morning. Harbaugh says Jameis is still the guy. That's exactly what you say right before he isn't the guy. It's like getting the "we need to talk" text, but from your own head coach. Arizona put 30 on the Niners last week. The Giants didn't score a touchdown in Week 3. Not one. Cardinals, and the Under, because I don't see New York doing its part. Oh dear.
Player picks coming Sunday morning.
BROS: Eagles +3
GURU: Rams -3.5 · Over 43.5
Guru's guess: Rams 24, Eagles 20
Philly just got waxed 27-7 by a 38-year-old third-stringer. Let that breathe for a second. Now DeVonta Smith has a hamstring, Goedert is doubtful, and Zack Baun is in the concussion protocol. The Eagles injury report is longer than my last receipt at the merch table. Meanwhile Stafford threw it 55 times last week like he gets paid by the attempt. This line went from Philly favored to the Rams laying three and a half, and I'm not fighting it. Rams, and the Over, because LA is gonna throw it until somebody makes them stop, and the Eagles don't have the guys to make them stop. Eagles fans, airing of the grievances starts at 4.
Player picks coming Sunday morning.
BROS: Buccaneers +3.5
GURU: Packers -3.5 · Over 38.5
Guru's guess: Packers 23, Buccaneers 17
Baker's out with a dislocated thumb, so undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels gets his first start. Jalon Daniels. I had to look him up, and I'm the one who's supposed to know things. The total crashed from 47.5 all the way to 38.5. That's the whole market hearing the brown acid announcement at once. Too much. Jordan Love threw for 312 even in a blowout loss. The Packers can't run the ball, so they'll throw it, and throwing stops the clock. Tampa's 0-3 and handing the keys to a guy nobody drafted. Packers, and the Over. I don't wanna be a pirate.
Player picks coming Sunday morning.
BROS: Titans +11.5
GURU: Titans +11.5 · Under 42.5
Guru's guess: Ravens 24, Titans 13
Lamar's back is sore, but he practiced Thursday and he'll go. I'm not betting against Lamar playing. I'm betting against Baltimore winning by twelve with two offensive linemen out. Eleven and a half is a lot of points to lay on anybody. Tennessee scored 7 last week, so they're not doing much either. Henry gets the ball 25 times against his old team, the clock runs, and everybody's home by 4:15. Ravens win big. Just not that big. Titans with the points, Under. Basic. Sometimes basic cashes.
Player picks coming Sunday morning.
BROS: Cowboys +3
GURU: Cowboys +3 · Under 48.5
Guru's guess: Cowboys 24, Texans 21
My Cowboys. I'll be fair. I've been hurt before. Houston's 0-3, Stroud threw for 167 last week, and Nico Collins's hamstring is a maybe. On our side, the secondary is tape taped together with tape. Safeties on IR, a corner doubtful. But Dak is slinging it, CeeDee and Pickens are both getting theirs, and I'll take a field goal with a team that can actually score. Houston's offense moves like a guy looking for his car in the wrong parking garage. That's the Under. If the Cowboys lose this, I'll relisten to the tape before I decide how mad I am. Then I'll be mad.
Player picks coming Sunday morning.
BROS: Dolphins +10.5
GURU: Dolphins +10.5 · Under 38.5
Guru's guess: Vikings 20, Dolphins 13
Minnesota's 3-0. Miami's 0-3. So the line jumped from 7.5 to 10.5, because people like records. But the Vikings don't blow anybody out. They scored 23 last week. They win the way your quiet uncle wins at cards, no celebrating, just takes your money and goes home. Jefferson's ankle has him day-to-day. Miami lost Achane for the year, so they won't score a ton either. Low score, slow game, and ten and a half is a lot of points in a rock fight. Dolphins with the points. Under. This is one of my favorites on the board.
Player picks coming Sunday morning.
BROS: Raiders +4.5
GURU: Raiders +4.5 · Over 47.5
Guru's guess: Chiefs 27, Raiders 24
Both teams are 3-0 and Vegas is getting four and a half at home. Kirk Cousins has thrown three touchdowns in every game. Every game. Nobody saw that coming, including Kirk. The line slid from 5.5 to 4.5, so the money is quietly walking over to the Raiders side. Mahomes went 20 for 24 last week, so neither defense is getting many stops. Close, loud, and probably a field goal either way. If the Raiders cover, that's huge. If they win outright? Matters.
Player picks coming Sunday morning.
BROS: Broncos +3
GURU: Broncos +3 · Over 47.5
Guru's guess: 49ers 26, Broncos 24
The Niners are 3-0, but they're playing without Nick Bosa and two other defensive linemen. That's a lot of empty jerseys trying to chase Bo Nix around. San Francisco just scored 36 and gave up 30 in the same afternoon. That's the whole pitch for the Over. Denver's tough at home, but this isn't home, it's California. I'll take the three with the Broncos, and the Over is my Top Shelf here. Points going up, both sides. Fun.
Player picks coming Sunday morning.
BROS: Chargers +7
GURU: Chargers +7 · Over 42.5
Guru's guess: Seahawks 24, Chargers 20
The Chargers are 0-3, and this line went from three to seven so fast it should've gotten pulled over. Last week Seattle laid a big number and lost outright to Marcus Mariota. Gave up 33 to him. Thirty-three. Now they're laying seven again like nothing happened. Herbert's healthy, his line is beat up, but seven is too many for a team that just got embarrassed. Darnold threw it 45 times, so points are coming. Chargers with the points, Over. Seattle fans, I'm sure it'll be different this time. Just sayin.
Player picks coming Sunday morning.
BROS: Panthers +3.5
GURU: Lions -3.5 · Over 51.5
Guru's guess: Lions 30, Panthers 23
Detroit put 31 on the Jets and Gibbs scored three times. Carolina just lost two corners to IR, Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson. Losing both your starting corners the week Detroit shows up is like ordering a new couch and finding out your doorway's too small. The total jumped from 45.5 to 51.5, and I'm not standing in front of that train. Bryce Young can keep it interesting for a half, but the Lions have more guys who can score, and they score fast. Lions, and the Over. Never miss a Sunday show.
Player picks coming Sunday morning.
BROS: Falcons +2.5
GURU: Falcons +2.5 · Under 47.5
Guru's guess: Falcons 27, Saints 24
The Falcons ran all over Green Bay. Bijan and Drake London both went for 194. That's not a stat line, that's a phone number. New Orleans lost Travis Etienne to a hamstring, and their defense just gave up 35 to the Raiders at home. In the Dome, no weather, fast turf, two offenses that can move it. I'll take the points with the team that's actually rolling. Falcons, and the Over. How big are you going on Monday? Asking for a friend who's me.
Player picks coming Sunday morning.
No Hill to Die On this week. Nothing's strong enough to stand on by itself. The Bros already locked theirs in. Bold of them.
No Hill this week.
FINAL
The Guru is 8–8 on totals. 0 still out.
Steelers @ Browns
Missed
24–27 · 51 points · Under 38.5
Colts @ Commanders
Cashed
30–13 · 43 points · Under 47.5
Patriots @ Bills
Missed
29–26 · 55 points · Under 48.5
Jets @ Bears
Cashed
12–23 · 35 points · Under 43.5
Jaguars @ Bengals
Missed
22–17 · 39 points · Over 51.5
Cardinals @ Giants
Missed
24–36 · 60 points · Under 44.5
Rams @ Eagles
Cashed
24–20 · 44 points · Over 43.5
Packers @ Buccaneers
Missed
17–14 · 31 points · Over 38.5
Titans @ Ravens
Cashed
18–24 · 42 points · Under 42.5
Cowboys @ Texans
Missed
34–30 · 64 points · Under 48.5
Dolphins @ Vikings
Cashed
10–15 · 25 points · Under 38.5
Chiefs @ Raiders
Cashed
30–27 · 57 points · Over 47.5
Broncos @ 49ers
Missed
14–24 · 38 points · Over 47.5
Chargers @ Seahawks
Cashed
23–30 · 53 points · Over 42.5
Lions @ Panthers
Cashed
26–32 · 58 points · Over 51.5
Falcons @ Saints
Missed
45–24 · 69 points · Under 47.5
Week 4 totals champ: Cornholio, 11-4. He can't pick a team. He can pick a number.
| Member | Week 4 | Week 5 | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cornholio | 11-4 | — | 11-4 |
| Beavis | 4-2 | — | 4-2 |
| ChillWill77 | 6-9 | — | 6-9 |
| bevisTHEEbutthead | 3-11 | — | 3-11 |
| THE GURU (totals) | 8-8 | 10-5 | 25-22 |
Two picks, fifteen opinions, zero refunds.